Medical Cost Trends (2015 - 2026)

Track how healthcare costs have changed over the past decade. Medicare conversion factors, Medical CPI, and year-over-year inflation rates from official CMS and BLS data.

Medicare Conversion Factor ($/RVU)

The Medicare Physician Fee Schedule conversion factor converts Relative Value Units (RVUs) into dollar amounts. It has been declining since 2020 before a 2026 recovery to $33.40.

$31.0 $32.5 $34.0 $35.5 $37.0 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2025 2026 $35.80 $35.80 $35.89 $35.99 $36.04 $36.09 $34.89 $34.61 $33.89 $33.29 $32.35 $32.35 $33.40
2015
$35.80
2016
$35.80
2017
$35.89
2018
$35.99
2019
$36.04
2020
$36.09
2021
$34.89
2022
$34.61
2023
$33.89
2024
$33.29
2025
$32.35
2025
$32.35
2026
$33.40

Medical CPI Year-Over-Year Change (%)

The Medical Care Consumer Price Index from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Medical inflation has consistently outpaced general inflation, with notable spikes in 2020 and 2022.

0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 3.6% 2016 2.9% 2017 2.0% 2018 2.8% 2019 4.1% 2020 1.2% 2021 4.0% 2022 0.5% 2023 2.6% 2024 3.1% 2025 1.8% 2026

Medicare Conversion Factor YoY Change (%)

While medical costs rise with CPI, Medicare reimbursement to physicians has been cut year after year. The 2026 increase (+3.25%) is the first meaningful raise in over a decade.

-3% -2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 0.0% 2016 +0.3% 2017 +0.3% 2018 +0.1% 2019 +0.1% 2020 -3.3% 2021 -0.8% 2022 -2.1% 2023 -1.8% 2024 -2.8% 2025 +3.3% 2026

Key Insights

-10.5%
Medicare CF decline (2020-2025)

Physicians received less per RVU even as their costs rose.

+32.6%
Medical CPI rise (2015-2026)

Healthcare inflation far outpaces general inflation (23%).

+3.25%
2026 Medicare CF increase

First significant increase in the conversion factor since 2020.

$33.40
2026 Conversion Factor

Still below the 2015 level of $35.80 despite a decade of inflation.

Data Sources

  • Medicare Conversion Factor: CMS Physician Fee Schedule (CY 2015-2026 Final Rules)
  • Medical CPI: Bureau of Labor Statistics, FRED Series CPIMEDSL (Medical Care CPI-U)
  • Year-over-year changes computed from annual averages

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